How WarScope Works
WarScope aggregates open-source data from internationally recognized institutions to visualize global conflict, instability, and humanitarian impact. This page documents every data source, its update cadence, geographic coverage, and known limitations.
We publish this because transparency is not optional — it is the foundation of responsible conflict reporting.
Data Sources
GDELT Project
https://www.gdeltproject.orgWhat it measures
Global news events coded using CAMEO (Conflict and Mediation Event Observations) taxonomy. Captures over 300 types of political, social, and conflict events extracted from worldwide news media in real time.
Update frequency
Updated every 15 minutes. Full database export available daily. WarScope ingests the latest 24-hour window on page load.
Coverage
65+ languages, 250+ countries, sourced from tens of thousands of online news outlets. Coverage dates back to 1979 for historical queries.
Limitations
GDELT reflects media coverage, not ground truth. Events in media-poor regions (closed regimes, remote conflict zones) are systematically undercounted. Automated event coding introduces classification errors, particularly for nuanced political events.
NASA FIRMS (VIIRS / MODIS)
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.govWhat it measures
Active fire and thermal anomaly detections from NASA's VIIRS (375m resolution) and MODIS (1km resolution) satellite sensors. In conflict zones, anomalies correlate with artillery strikes, burning infrastructure, and military activity.
Update frequency
Near real-time: VIIRS updates every 3–6 hours. MODIS updates twice daily. WarScope displays the last 48-hour window.
Coverage
Global coverage with no geographic restrictions. Polar regions and areas with persistent cloud cover have reduced detection rates.
Limitations
FIRMS cannot distinguish between wildfires, agricultural burns, industrial fires, and weapons impacts. Conflict attribution requires corroboration with event data. Cloud cover can suppress detections entirely for days at a time.
ACLED Project
https://acleddata.comWhat it measures
Disaggregated data collection on political violence and protest events worldwide. Provides highly verified, curated event data with strict methodological standards.
Update frequency
Updated weekly. WarScope integrates ACLED data when available to corroborate and baseline faster, noisier data sources like GDELT.
Coverage
Global coverage of political violence, demonstrations, and select non-violent actions.
Limitations
Because events are manually curated and verified by analysts, there is a reporting lag. Not suitable for immediate breaking news or zero-day event detection.
Fragile States Index
https://fragilestatesindex.orgWhat it measures
Annual composite score (0–120) across 12 social, economic, and political indicators including security apparatus, demographic pressures, economic decline, factionalized elites, and human rights. Published by the Fund for Peace.
Update frequency
Annual publication, typically released in May. WarScope uses the 2024 edition. Scores reflect the prior calendar year's conditions.
Coverage
179 countries ranked globally. Covers virtually all UN member states except microstates with limited available data.
Limitations
Annual cadence means acute crises (coups, sudden conflict escalation) are not captured until the next edition. Methodology relies on qualitative content analysis combined with quantitative indicators, introducing subjectivity.
RSF Press Freedom Index
https://rsf.org/en/indexWhat it measures
Annual score (0–100) reflecting the ability of journalists to work freely and independently. Covers five indicators: political context, legal framework, economic context, sociocultural context, and safety of journalists. Published by Reporters Without Borders (RSF).
Update frequency
Annual publication, typically released in May. WarScope uses the 2024 edition.
Coverage
180 countries and territories ranked globally.
Limitations
Press freedom scores are partially based on expert surveys and journalist testimony, which can introduce regional biases. The index measures environment, not individual incident counts, so a single high-profile killing may not shift scores significantly year-over-year.
UNHCR / IDMC Displacement Data
https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statisticsWhat it measures
Total displaced persons per country, broken down into refugees abroad (those who have crossed an international border) and internally displaced persons (IDPs, those displaced within their own country). Also includes top destination countries for refugee populations.
Update frequency
UNHCR updates country-level figures quarterly. IDMC publishes annual global reports. WarScope uses the most recent available figures (2025 for most countries).
Coverage
Global. UNHCR covers refugee populations under its mandate; IDMC covers IDP populations. Some countries use UNRWA data (Palestinian territories) or national government estimates.
Limitations
IDP figures are notoriously difficult to count and are frequently underestimated in active conflict zones. Refugee counts depend on host country registration; significant unregistered populations exist in many host countries. Figures lag real-world events by weeks to months.
Satellite Sources
WarScope tracks four satellites in real time using Two-Line Element (TLE) sets from CelesTrak. Their live positions are rendered on the globe. These satellites serve distinct roles in the WarScope data pipeline.
NOAA-20 (JPSS-1)
Sun-synchronous, ~824 km altitude
NOAA-20 carries the VIIRS sensor (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite), which detects active fires and thermal anomalies at 375 m resolution. It is a primary source for NASA FIRMS fire detections displayed on the WarScope globe.
Suomi NPP
Sun-synchronous, ~824 km altitude
Suomi NPP also carries VIIRS and MODIS-class sensors. Its thermal detections complement NOAA-20, providing overlapping coverage passes every 3–6 hours globally. Together, NOAA-20 and Suomi NPP feed the NASA FIRMS fire data pipeline.
Sentinel-2A
Sun-synchronous, ~786 km altitude
Sentinel-2A (ESA / Copernicus program) provides 10–60 m multispectral imagery. It is a key source for damage assessment and post-strike imagery analysis in conflict zones. WarScope uses Sentinel-2A as its primary imagery reference satellite.
ISS (ZARYA)
Inclined, ~408 km altitude
The International Space Station is tracked as a reference orbit to calibrate satellite altitude scales and demonstrate real-time orbital propagation. The ISS orbit is rendered in white on the globe and updates every 10 seconds. It does not contribute directly to conflict data.
Editorial Principles
Factual only
WarScope displays data as reported by its primary sources. We do not editorialize, speculate, or draw causal conclusions beyond what the data supports.
Source everything
Every data point links to its originating institution. When data is derived or aggregated, we document the transformation. No unattributed claims.
Acknowledge gaps
Absence of data is not absence of conflict. We label regions with known data gaps and avoid implying stability where information is simply unavailable.
No sides
WarScope does not endorse any state, faction, military force, or political position. Naming conventions follow international diplomatic standards unless otherwise noted.
Civilian impact first
Our visualization prioritizes the human cost of conflict — displacement, casualties, and press suppression — over military tactical reporting.
Data over narrative
When raw data contradicts a dominant news narrative, we display the data. Corrections and methodology updates are versioned and documented.
Embed WarScope
The WarScope globe is available as an embeddable widget via the /embed route. Drop it into any article or page with a single <iframe> tag. No API key required.
Basic embed
<iframe src="https://warscope.net/embed" width="100%" height="500" frameborder="0" allow="fullscreen" title="WarScope — Global Conflict Intelligence" ></iframe>
Theater-specific embed
Use the ?theater= param to focus on a conflict zone: global, ukraine, or iran.
<iframe src="https://warscope.net/embed?theater=ukraine&days=14" width="100%" height="500" frameborder="0" title="Ukraine Conflict — WarScope" ></iframe>
Query parameters
| Param | Values | Default |
|---|---|---|
| theater | global · ukraine · iran | global |
| days | 7 · 14 · 30 | 30 |
- No API key required for public embed usage.
- The embed updates automatically as underlying data refreshes.
- Attribution to WarScope is required per our terms of use.
- For high-volume or commercial embed use, contact us via the GitHub repository.
Fusion Algorithm & Scoring Methodology
WarScope's fusion algorithm aggregates disparate data streams into statistical risk indicators for monitored conflict zones. These are calculated based on event data trends — not predictive machine learning models. The fusion score indicates patterns and convergence across data sources, not predictions of specific events.
Escalation Score
TrendCompares the 7-day rolling average event count against the 30-day rolling average. A positive score indicates accelerating activity; negative indicates de-escalation. Formula: (avg_7d - avg_30d) / avg_30d, clamped to [-1, 1].
Severity Trend
LethalityMeasures whether events are becoming more lethal by comparing the 7-day fatality rate per event against the 30-day rate. A rising trend suggests escalating violence intensity. Formula: (fatalityRate_7d - fatalityRate_30d) / fatalityRate_30d, clamped to [-1, 1].
Spread Index
GeographicCalculates whether conflict events are geographically expanding or concentrating by comparing the bounding box diagonal of 7-day events against 30-day events. Higher values indicate geographic expansion. Formula: spread_7d / spread_30d, clamped to [0, 1].
Fragility Risk
StructuralCombines the Fund for Peace Fragile States Index score (structural vulnerability) with recent event intensity. Higher fragility amplifies the impact of event activity. Formula: (fragility_score / 120) × 0.6 + (event_intensity) × 0.4, clamped to [0, 1].
Overall Risk
CompositeWeighted composite of all four indicators: Escalation (30%), Severity (20%), Spread (15%), Fragility (35%). Classified as: Stable (0-25%), Watch (25-50%), Elevated (50-75%), Critical (75-100%).
Risk Matrix
Zones are plotted on a 3×3 likelihood vs impact matrix. Likelihood is derived from escalation and severity trends. Impact is derived from 30-day fatality counts and fragility scores. This is a static snapshot, not a dynamic model.
Update Frequencies
| Source | Frequency | Latency |
|---|---|---|
| GDELT Events | Every 15 minutes | ~15 min from news publication |
| NASA FIRMS | Every 3-6 hours | 3-6 hours from satellite pass |
| USGS Earthquakes | Near real-time | <5 minutes |
| Fragile States Index | Annual | ~12 months (reflects prior year) |
| Prediction Scores | Hourly | Computed on demand, cached 1 hour |
| Daily Digest | Daily | Generated on first visit, cached 24 hours |
Known Limitations & Coverage Gaps
Media bias
GDELT reflects global media coverage. Regions with fewer journalists or press restrictions (North Korea, Eritrea, Turkmenistan) are systematically undercounted.
Temporal lag
Fragility scores are annual, meaning rapid state deterioration (coups, sudden conflict onset) is not reflected until the next edition.
Attribution uncertainty
FIRMS thermal detections cannot distinguish military strikes from wildfires or industrial activity without corroborating event data.
Statistical indicators
Prediction scores are backward-looking trend indicators. They detect patterns in historical data but cannot anticipate black swan events or sudden diplomatic shifts.
Mock data fallback
When live APIs are unavailable, WarScope falls back to representative mock data. Digest and prediction pages indicate data source provenance.
Displacement lag
UNHCR and IDMC refugee figures can lag weeks to months behind actual displacement events, particularly in active conflict zones.
Data Quality & Source Reliability
WarScope assigns reliability tiers to its data sources based on methodology transparency, peer review status, and historical accuracy.
| Source | Reliability | Methodology | Peer Reviewed |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDELT | High | Published, open | Yes |
| NASA FIRMS | High | Published, satellite-validated | Yes |
| USGS | High | Published, seismologically validated | Yes |
| Fund for Peace (FSI) | Medium-High | Published, mixed quali-quant | Partially |
| RSF Press Freedom | Medium-High | Published, survey-based | Partially |
| UNHCR / IDMC | High | Published, field-validated | Yes |
| AI-generated forecasts | Advisory | LLM synthesis (Gemini) | No |
Confidence Scoring
WarScope assigns confidence levels to its outputs based on data availability and source convergence. Confidence is not a probability of an event occurring — it reflects how much data supports the current assessment.
HIGH
Multiple independent sources confirm. 30+ events in the window. Live data available. Corroborated by satellite or institutional reporting.
MEDIUM
Single primary source with secondary corroboration. 10-30 events in the window. Some data gaps acknowledged.
LOW
Fewer than 10 events in the window. Reliance on mock or stale data. Limited geographic coverage for the region.
ADVISORY ONLY
AI-generated content (threat forecasts, narrative summaries). Based on available data but not independently validated. Should not be cited as analysis.
WarScope is an open-source project. Data is provided for informational purposes only.